Serbia gets a deal

Despite many assertions that it would never happen, the much-discussed deal between the European Union and Serbia to fast-track its membership in the union has come to pass. Yesterday the EU signed a pre-membership pact with Belgrade that would enhance trade and cooperation and speed the process by which Serbia could eventually join the union.

The timing of the agreement is no accident. The deal was rushed through in Brussels ahead of a new round of elections happening in Serbia in two weeks. The EU is desperate to avoid a defeat of the pro-Western party by the Nationalist party, and the agreement is meant to be a signal to Serbian voters that if the country cooperates, it will be rewarded with EU membership.

Serbia today is town between adopting a pro-EU path or spurning the union and aligning itself with Moscow. The presidential election in February saw the moderate pro-EU candidate Boris Tadic narrowly defeat his nationalist, pro-Moscow rival Tomislav Nikolic. But the president is a largely symbolic post, and the real test will be in the general election on May 11, when the country will decide which bloc it wants to put in power.

Tadic wins in Serbia

The European Union breathed a collective sigh of relief yesterday as Serbia reelected pro-Europe Serbian president Boris Tadic, delivering a blow to his rival, ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic.

Tadic has sought to improve Serbia’s ties with the West and put Serbia on the path to EU membership. Nikolic wanted to limit ties with the EU and instead ally Serbia with Russia. Tadic won by a slim margin in an election with a high turnout at 67 percent.

The election was thought to be pivotal to the looming independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo, which has for years been under UN occupation following the NATO intervention in the Serbian civil wars of the 1990’s. The EU now wants to take over policing of an independent Serbia. Though both candidates are opposed to Kosovo’s independence, Tadic sees membership in the EU as crucial to Serbia’s future. It is therefore thought that though he will protest any plan for Kosovo independence, in the end he will go along with it in exchange for a faster road to EU membership.

In a move to influence the election, the EU last week made a move to grant an ‘interim pact on trade and cooperation’ with Serbia, hoping to send the message to Serbians that more rewards would follow if they elected Tadic.

Now that the election has passed it may just be a matter of weeks before Kosovo declares independence, but it remains to be seen how Serbia, and perhaps more importantly Russia, react.

Time for Serbia to pick a side

The Serbian presidential election over the weekend could hardly have been encouraging for Brussels. Ultranationalist candidate Tomislav Nikolic emerged the winner with 39.4 percent of the vote, beating the 35.4 percent of incumbent candidate Boris Tadic. Since neither candidate won a majority, a second round of voting will be held in two weeks.

The election is being closely watched because it has huge implications for the future of the Balkans. The Serbian people can choose either Mr. Nikolic, who wants closer ties with Russia and is opposed to NATO, the US and the EU, or Mr. Tadic, who wants Serbia to join the EU and wants it to distance itself from Russia. In short, the election will determine whether Serbia takes the path toward Russia or the path toward the EU.

The 61 percent turnout – the highest since the fall of Milosevic in 2000 – shows how seriously the Serbs are taking the vote, and the result of the weekend shows that they are almost evenly split over which direction Serbia should take.