Is Iowa the problem, or is it the primary system?

While I was home in the US over the past few weeks I witnessed the quadrennial spectacle of the Iowa caucuses - shivering reporters in front of the capital dome in Des Moines, candidates eating corn on the cob while clutching plump cord-fed babies, the usual fare. And I was also able to witness the quadrennial griping about why the United States allows “a few hundred farmers” to pick its president.

The complaining about the Iowa caucus, where the first nominating primary for both political parties’ presidential candidates is held, is both predictable and legitimate – even if the language used sometimes smacks of regional snobbery. The Iowa caucus makes or breaks politicians running for the presidency. Barack Obama owes his presidency to winning the Iowa Democratic caucus in 2008. This year, the result of the Republican caucus will force Michele Bachman and Rick Perry to drop out of the race. And the Iowans have elevated Rick Santorum from obscurity to be the main challenger to frontrunner Mitt Romney.

But the Iowa caucus is a big deal only because it is first. And being first means presidential candidates promise Iowa all sorts of lovely things (just look at the corn subsidies of the past four decades – and you wonder why Americans have corn syrup in most of their food for no reason?). The Iowans go through outrageous lengths to make sure they are first. When South Carolina and New Hampshire tried to move their primaries ahead of them this year, Iowa moved theirs to the earliest possible day in 2012 – 3 January.

This year the criticism went perhaps a little too far. A professor at the University of Iowa (himself a transplant from New Jersey) wrote a column for The Atlantic about a much-asked question – why should a state that is not ethnically or ideologically reflective of the country as a whole be given such a prominent role in selecting the nation’s president? But he asked it in a way that was incendiary to say the least, calling Iowa a place that's "culturally backward" and teeming with "slum towns”, where the 96% white population “clings to guns and religion.”

Berlusconi back on top

It’s official, Silvio Berlusconi is back in power in Italy after a significant victory in the country’s election Sunday and Monday.

The return of a former leader who was only ousted two years ago may not seem like a watershed moment, but the voting patterns were significant and could (I emphasize could) bring significant change down the line. In a country known for a vast menagerie of various parties making up its parliament, voters for the most part stuck with just the two big party formations in this election: Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PDL) and Veltroni’s newly-formed Democratic Party (PD). More than eight in 10 voters backed one or the other, and in the end the elections put only five separate parties into the parliament.

Italian election looming

There’s just three days to go until the big Italian election. As someone who is (hopefully) becoming a citizen of that country in a few months, I’ve been taking a keen interest. But it isn't just me. All the capitals of Europe are looking to Rome apprehensively, wondering if Italy is ever going to fix its government problem.

Let’s not mince words, the country’s political system is a mess. Since World War II it has seen a revolving door of governments that continually collapse and reshape. In its first 50 years of democracy Italy had 50 different governments. In fact the controversial conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who served as prime minister for five years before the current Prime Minister Romano Prodi unseated him in 2006, was the longest-serving Italian prime minister ever. Now Prodi’s fractious alliance between the center and far left has fallen apart in typical Italian fashion, the government was dissolved when the communists walked out and a new election was called.

Now Berlusconi is polling as much as nine points ahead, and Europe is bracing itself for another period of hard-handed rule by the media tycoon, who many people see as a bombastic demagogue. Disliked as he may be, many Italians now see him as the only solution to Italy’s chaos. But while he might bring stability, it would be hard to argue he will bring progress. His reign was marred by media censorship, economic stagnation and corruption scandals. Under his leadership Italy’s debt grew ever higher than its GDP and the promises of economic improvement he had made failed to materialize. However during the brief Prime Ministership of Romano Prodi, Italy's budget-deficit-to-GDP ratio fell from 4.4 percent in to 2.4 percent.

The return of Berlusconi?

The past week has been a shattering, if not entirely unexpected week for Italy’s center left. The country’s premier, Romano Prodi, resigned last week after losing a confidence vote in the senate.

Today Italy’s president Giorgio Napolitano met with Prodi’s arch rival, controversial conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who has been demanding early elections in which he could potentially reclaim power.

Prodi had been in power for two years, and in some ways it was surprising he had even lasted that long. His center-left coalition won power in April 2006 with a slim majority, and even then his fractious coalition seemed doomed from the start. In February 2007 Prodi had to resign as prime minister after losing a key foreign policy vote over Prodi's stance that Italy should continue to provide troops in Afghanistan, and over Prodi’s support of an expansion of an American military base in Vicenza, in northern Italy. Prodi then had to form a new government to hold on to power.

Communists topple Italian government

As so often happens in Italy, another government coalition has fallen apart. It still remains to be see what’s going to happen, this could actually have the effect of strengthening the Prodi government and giving it the strength to refuse the US’s request to expand the military base in Vicenza. But it could also put Burlusconi back in power.

It’s interesting because what happened last night actually pulls together a number of the things I’ve been writing about. To brief you on what led up to the Italian government’s fall, Prodi won an election nine months ago by a razor-thin margin, and formed a government by assembling a very loose coalition of political parties that ranged from Communists to centrist Catholics. The government has tried to push through a number of controversial reforms since then, one of which was granting civil union rights to non-married couples (including gays).

Prodi's Won

After a nerve-wracking 24 hours, the votes are finally all counted and there is a definitive result. Silvio Berlusconi is out. The center-left coalition under Romano Prodi has scored a slim victory over the conservative leader Berlusconi, thanks to the new expatriate voting blocks Berlusconi himself created.

Berlusconi is one of the most controversial leaders in Europe. His time at the helm of the EU presidency (they have a rotating presidency where each country assumes it for a period of time) was colossally embarrassing for the continent, and his hard-line tactics and cult of personality have failed to solve Italy’s economic woes while inching the country further and further to the right. Berlusconi has been Italy’s longest-serving prime minister since World War II and many Italians only support him because they’re afraid that dumping him would plunge Italy back into the political chaos that has dogged the country for 50 years.