Obama gets tough with Merkel, but is it too late?

Now that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been hobbled by the loss of her key ally in France, it seems the Obama administration is wasting no time in pressuring her into a course correction. The chorus of anti-austerity (and by extension anti-Merkel) voices is growing louder by the minute.

At next week’s G8 summit at Camp David, Barack Obama is reportedly going to put pressure on Germany to drop its insistence on the Eurozone economies adopting a severe austerity regime. He will ask Merkel to instead pursue a policy of stimulus and growth. He will apparently do so in no uncertain terms – warning Merkel that if she does not change course quickly she risks plunging the world into another deep recession that would be even worse than the Lehman Bros collapse in 2008.

The Guardian reports that the Obama administration is expected to try to forge close ties with new French President Francois Hollande at the first meeting of the two leaders on Tuesday. They are keen to rapidly establish Hollande as an ally in exerting pressure on Merkel to change course.

Obama already has the support of UK Prime Minister David Cameron, who while unwavering in his demand for austerity at home, publicly chastised the German chancellor in a speech yesterday for her lack of flexibility. Saying that the eurozone either had to “make up…or break up”, he said urgent steps are needed quickly to prevent an economic implosion of epic proportions in the coming weeks. He will reportedly tell Merkel this weekend to use Germany's wealth to rescue Southern Europe before it is too late.

"Chaotic" G8 Helped Few but the Tabloids

As the G8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy wraps up, it would seem that initial predictions for the meeting’s lack of accomplishment have been born out. In the area of climate change, though a 2 degree temperature rise cap was theoretically agreed, the leaders failed to pass a climate bill which would mandate halving global emissions by 2050. The G8 also failed to agree a concerted strategy to boost the global economy, and they could not agree to any new sanctions on Iran or North Korea.

The timing of the summit, sandwiched as it is between two important G20 meetings, is of course partly to blame for the inaction. But many on the ground are blaming the failures on the country leading this year’s meeting, Italy. In the run-up to the summit there was a great deal of press about how the US had been forced to take the reigns of at the last minute after Italy failed to show any real leadership. But it was a report in Monday’s Guardian which stirred up the most controversy, alleging that senior officials from the other G8 nations were saying that Italy’s organisation of the event was so bad, the group should consider expelling it as a member.

The newspaper quotes senior officials as saying that in the last few weeks leading up to the summit, Washington was forced to organise “sherpa calls” at the last minute in order to give the summit some kind of purpose, as the Italians had seemingly failed to propose any substantive initiatives. For a country other than the host to organize these calls is “unprecedented”, one official told the paper. It was the US that organized the food security initiative, perhaps the only substantial thing to come out of the meeting. The paper also said that moving the summit from Sardinia to the recently earthquake-ravaged area of L'Aquila had created a logistical nightmare, with both officials and press unable to get around and telecommunications limited. And that’s not to mention the danger posed to the visiting heads of state as the area is still experiencing aftershocks.

The Guardian’s article was met with shock and consternation from Italian officials this week, some of it rather amusing. Foreign Minister Franco Frattini reacted to the assertion that some are calling for Italy to be kicked out of the G8 by saying it is The Guardian which should be “expelled from the list of great newspapers!” Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi himself even gave his take on the article, saying it was a "load of rubbish" from a "small newspaper". Well which is it, a small newspaper or a great newspaper?

But disorganisation – an admitted national stereotype - isn’t the only accusation being levelled at Italy. Yesterday news emerged of a developing spy row in L’Aquila as people claimed the Italians were trying to use headphones to listen in on other negotiations. Berlusconi’s aids were also accused of having looked into using an audio device to communicate messages to him during secret meetings.

If the chaos and corruption being reported on the ground is true, it will not help Italy’s case for staying in the G8 or its successor body as a growing chorus of people call for the G8’s dissolution. There has been talk of replacing Italy with Spain, which now has a higher per capita national income than Italy and gives a greater percentage of GDP in aid. But US officials oppose this, believing that the group is already too Euro-centric. It may be that Britain, France and Germany are a bit nervous about the prospect of seeing Italy get the boot, because they know that they could eventually be next. The world has changed a great deal since the G8 was formed, as Spain’s emergence from the dark ages of the Franco era attests.

Many in the US think that a new group should be formed where all European nations are represented by a single EU seat (especially considering the EU already has an unofficial seat in the G8, effectively giving the European nations double representation). Individual EU countries would surely resist this, but the reality is they may have to accept it eventually. A more logical “G6” grouping in the future might be the US, the EU, China, Russia, India and Brazil.

Sex on Their Minds

Of course everyone gathered in Italy for the G8 summit can’t escape the Berlusconi sex scandal lurking in the background that has coloured the whole event. Wednesday saw the bizarre spectacle of five first ladies visiting the pope, all wearing veils - including Britain’s Sarah Brown - except for the first lady of Brazil - the largest Catholic country on earth. (Side note – can someone explain to me why non-Catholic women were compelled to wear a veil while meeting the pope?).

They were led by a former topless model (also veiled) who was standing in for the first lady of Italy, who is currently in divorce proceedings with her philandering husband Silvio Berlusconi. The stand-in for Italian first lady was Mara Carfagna, a former topless model appointed by Berlusconi to be – get this- his equal opportunities minister. The first wives had been asked to boycott the summit by a group of Italian university professors in response to, “the way women are treated in public and private by the Italian prime minister.” None of the wives agreed to the boycott but interestingly the most high-profile ones – Michelle Obama and Carla Bruni – were conveniently not available for the pope introduction led by the topless model.

None of the leaders or their wives have offered direct comment on the scandal, but Obama seemed to offer veiled disapproval of Berlusconi earlier this week following his meeting with Italy’s president. He lavished praise on President Napolitano (a mere figurehead in the Italian system of government) while offering none for Berlusconi.

President Napolitano had called on politicians and the media to take a break on discussing the sex allegations against Berlusconi during the summit so as to spare Italy any further embarrassment, but now that the meeting is coming to an end it looks like new allegations will keep emerging. New photos will reportedly be revealed in the next few days showing two topless women kissing in front of the prime minister for his amusement.

As G8 summits go, this year’s was, if not the most productive, at least the most sexy.

Awkward Handshakes in Italy

Given his squeaky-clean image, Barack Obama is probably not thrilled about the prospect of clasping hands with sex-scandal-plagued Silvio Berlusconi next week as the Italian prime minister hosts the G8 summit in Italy. Berlusconi, dogged by allegations of sex with minors, hiring prostitutes and organising lavish orgies at his Sardinian villa, will probably be uncomfortable company for all of the G8 leaders, especially for the lone female leader, Angela Merkel. After the stories that have been unveiled about the prime minister’s treatment of women, she’s probably going to feel pretty uncomfortable standing next to the 72-year-old Lothario.

Considering the huge blow this scandal has dealt to Italy’s image abroad (which Berlusconi has bizarrely blamed on foreign media rather than on his own behaviour), this is going to be an awkward few days. But add to that the hugely controversial “vigilante justice” law passed by the Italian parliament yesterday, which will allow citizen patrols to dole out punishments on the street, and you’ve got a hugely important meeting happening in a country that observers fear is edging closer and closer toward a return to fascism.

In reality, the expectations for this summit are not very high. The meeting is sandwiched between the more important G20 summits in London and Pittsburgh where actual policy on the financial crisis was and will be devised. There will eb some important statements on climate change during this summit, but those policy shifts were dictated by Obama, not Berlusconi. And on development and aid, there is likely to be little in the way of commitment, and even the location of this meeting seems insultingly absurd in that area considering Italy has one of the worst reputations in the Western world for meeting aid commitments, cutting its aid to poor countries by 56 percent this year.

Italy is now so concerned about its rapidly deteriorating image abroad that the president this week begged his country's politicians and journalists to protect Italy's international reputation international reputation by ceasing all talk about the prime minister's sex scandals. Italy's media, which is mostly owned by media tycoon Berlusconi, may be only too happy to comply. But it's unlikely the foreign press will

Though Berlusconi has tried to make the location of this year’s summit reflect a global mood of “sobriety and solidarity” by moving it to the central Italian region of L’Aquila – battered by a devastating earthquake last year – it’s likely that to many the location of this year’s summit will instead highlight the absurdity of the group’s very existence. If the G8 is supposed to stand as a model for the developing world, why does this year’s host more closely resemble a Central American dictator than a respectable leader of a great power? Why is China - which has the world’s third largest GDP - not in the group, while Canada – ranked 11th – is? Does the G8 still have any moral or economic legitimacy? Is it even relevant? These questions will likely be asked more forcefully as the summit is held in a country with such embarrassing political, social and economic problems.

‘The New Blackshirts’

On Thursday the Italian parliament authorized unarmed citizens' patrols patrol Italy's streets, aiding law enforcement and dispensing justice. In anticipation of the move, a right-wing uniformed group called the Italian National Guard was set up last month. They wear beige uniforms and black military-style hats, much like Benito Mussolini's fascists. That group will shortly begin patrolling the streets. The legislation follows significant recent gains by Italy’s neo-fascist parties, most notably when Gianni Alemanno was elected mayor of Rome last May.

The same legislation will make illegal immigration a criminal offense in Italy, introducing fines of €5,000 to €10,000 for those caught, extending detention periods for illegal migrants to six months, and introducing prison terms of up to three years for anyone housing them. It follows recent moves by the Italian government to introduce mandatory fingerprinting for Romani people (gypsies).

Aftershocks and Futureshocks

There was apparently another earthquake in L'Aquila just today - an aftershock from the previous one that devastated the area. One can question the wisdom of holding a meeting of the world's most powerful leaders in an earthquake-prone area, but its perhaps earthquakes of the political variety Berlusconi is most eager to avoid. He is no doubt very aware that his first government eventually collapsed in 1994 after a newspaper published court documents relating to allegations of corruption against him while he was hosting an international security summit in Naples. He’s also surely aware of Italy’s humiliation in 2001 after violence and heavy-handed police action marred the last G8 summit he hosted in Genoa. Berlusconi has passed a lawmaking himself immune to criminal prosecution, so he doesn’t have to worry any more about being subject to any legal embarassment. But he does have to worry that Italy’s host duties will put his philandering behaviour in the international spotlight in a way that is finally too unpalatable for the Italian public, who have so far stuck by the prime minister with approval ratings as high as 72%.

It has been speculated that large swathes of the Italian public are actually unaware of the sex scandal surrounding Berlusconi because he owns most of the media in the country and his stations and newspapers have avoided covering it. But the high-profile nature of the G8 summit could make a further whitewash impossible over the next week if the allegations somehow become connected to the summit.

One thing is for certain – Berlusconi will have to tread carefully over the coming week, and he will have to be on his best behaviour. It looks like Italy’s meter maids, for this week anyway, may get a reprieve from the unprovoked humpings.

Emperor Silvio

It’s been many times that this blog has predicted the imminent political demise of Silvio Berlusconi, but with the Italian leader now openly cavorting with a 17-year-old girl and throwing bizarre teen slumber parties in Sardinia, has the most powerful man in Italy finally overstepped the mark?

This week I’ve been watching old episodes of I, Claudius on DVD, an old miniseries the BBC produced about the Roman Empire (specifically the Julio-Claudian dynasty and the first four emperors of Rome). It’s a fantastic series, and it’s been interesting to see how differently the British portray the Romans from the Americans (I never knew the Romans were so effete!). I have to say that watching this tale of decadent, power-mad Italian emperors has seened a bit familiar as I concurrently watched “Noemigate” unfold in Italy this week.

Really this is just the climax of a long unfolding scandal. After months of increasingly criticizing her husband in public for his philandering and his choice to put forward bikini-clad bimbos as Italian Senators, Berlusconi’s wife, Veronica Lario, finally decided she had had enough this month and publicly demanded a divorce from the eccentric prime minister. At first Italians weren’t paying all that much attention to the affair, as it was typical of the high drama involved in the prime minister’s personal life. But when Ms. Lazio revealed what the final straw had been, everything changed. She was finally leaving the 72-year-old Berlusconi, she said, because he has been unabashedly and publicly carrying on a relationship with a 17-year-old girl.

Incredibly, Berlusconi doesn’t deny it – though he insists the relationship has not been sexual. The young model at the centre of this storm, Noemi Letizia, has hardly been low-profile either. Giving an interview to the newspaper Corriere del Mezzogiorno, she giggled, “I often sing with Papi Silvio at the piano, or we do karaoke”. As the FT’s Tony Barber noted earlier this week, it’s hard to know who to feel more sorry for in this sad spectacle - Lario, Noemi’s ex-fiancé Gino Flaminio who was dumped once the prime minister came-a-calling, or the entire 60 million Italian people.

The official line from the prime minister’s office is this: Berlusconi knows Noemi’s father Benedetto Letizia, a functionary for the city of Naples, and he started a friendship with the young girl after meeting her through him. But the story the cast-away Flaminio told newspaper La Repubblica on Sunday – and the far more likely scenario - is that the prime minister first called Ms. Letizia last fall after seeing her picture in a modelling catalogue. Then, given that Berlusconi is the most powerful man in Italy – controlling both the government and the media – the parents kept silent about (and possibly even encouraged) the budding relationship between the two, and Noemi wasted no time in dumping Flaminio. Both Flaminio and Noemi's aunt have said Berlusconi and Mr. Letizia never knew each other before he decided to call their home to arrange a "meeting" with Noemi.

Berlusconi then invited Noemi and a schoolmate to a party at his private villa in Sardinia where other teenage girls were present. But finally, when Berlusconi showed up at the Noemi's 18th birthday party earlier this year, his wife decided she would end their marriage, which at 19 years began even before Noemi was born (and that was already Berlusconi’s second marriage!).

Now this is hardly the first time Berlusconi has embarrassed his country with his behaviour. His past sins include humping a random stranger in the street, manhandling the presidents of Russia and America at the G20, and his notorious pinching of every female bottom within a ten foot radius. And each time it happens, Berlusconi’s adversaries inside and outside Italy are driven to exasperation by the fact that his approval ratings only seem to go up. Even after a British corporate lawyer was convicted last month of accepting a $600,000 bribe from Berlusconi and then covering up the crime to protect the prime minister and his Fininvest holding company (Berlusconi himself cannot be tried because he passed a law last year that gives him immunity from prosecution), the Italians still support him. And yet in any other Western European country Berlusconi would have been driven from power long ago for any of these discretions.

Even the Catholic church is too intimidated to criticize the most powerful man in Italy. The Italian Bishops Conference this week refused to comment on the matter, and when asked the bishops would only say that each person’s conduct was a matter “of individual conscience.” Oh really? That’s a new one coming from the Catholic Church!

Of course in the end the problem isn’t just about Berlusconi’s sex life, or his unbridled arrogance. It’s the fact that nobody seems to be paying any attention to Italy’s deep structural problems. The country’s economy is in a shambles. Reconstruction after an earthquake in central Italy left 70,000 people homeless has yet to begin in earnest.

The leader one Italian opposition party recently compared Berlusconi to Nero, fiddling while Rome burned. Yet Italians have convinced themselves that Berlusconi, though he may be increasingly losing his grip on reality, is the only man who can hold the country together. The situation bears more than a little resemblance to the BBC miniseries that’s been occupying my evenings this week.

Feeling up the German chancellor

Well as the world waits anxiously to see if the Lebanon crisis will lead to World War III, our president is busy feeling up the German chancellor.

This has got to be the funniest thing I’ve seen in awhile. Meeting with leaders of the eight industrialized nations at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, Bush strides into the room, make a bee-line for German Chancellor Angela Merkel and proceeds to massage her neck!

Watch the video, it’s hysterical. Merkel looks so creeped out, she at first recoils and makes this uncomfortable face, then she throws her hands back and pushes him off.