1968 Tensions in the Gazprom Crisis

The EU has struck a deal with Russia, and it appears the gas crisis may be coming to an end, as millions of people in the Balkans continue to be without heat during a brutal cold snap across Europe. In exchange for Russia immediately reopening its gas pipeline through the Ukraine, who it has accused of stealing gas, the EU will send monitors to supervise supplies of Russian gas through the country. However according to the latest reports, gas is still not flowing through the pipeline as of this afternoon.

Given that this is the first crisis faced by the new Czech presidency of the European Union, many are doing some hand-wringing over whether the bad blood between the Czech Republic and Russia is going to affect the negotiations over this crisis. The history between the Czech Republic and its former occupier, as well as its current diplomatic tension over the missile defense system being installed by the US, mean that negotiations taking place between the Czech presidency and Russia are going to have some baggage.

Today the FT's EU correspondent Tony Barber wrote in his blog that these fears are misplaced, but I have to say that his his analysis doesn't conform with my experience there. I lived in Prague back in 2002-2003, and during this time I found antipathy toward the Russians to still be alive and well, especially among the older generation. I had a Ukranian friend there who spoke fluent Russian, but no Czech. But although most older Czechs can understand Russian because they learned it in school, when she would walk into a store and speak in Russian she would be met with just cold stares. She would then ask again in English and then they would respond, even though it was clear they had understood her the first time.

I found this same attitude existed with older Czech coworkers where I worked in Prague. Whenever something about Russia came up I could see their expressions harden. This is probably only to be expected, after all we are talking about a country that brutally crushed their political movement in 1968 and then occupied their country until for the next 20 years.

Of course this is just anecdotal evidence, and not the same as the Czech foreign minister's assertions to the contrary. But of course it's any diplomat's job to gloss over tensions. So far Czech-Russian tension doesn't seem to have had an affect on the current crisis, but even once this is resolved there are serious implications of what has happened here that need to be dealt with. This incident will surely bring home the fact that the EU is dangerously dependent on Russia for its energy supply. Could hostile words from a Czech presidency have the effect of exacerbating the conflict? At a time when Brussels is already worried about the effect the Czech presidency will have on the Lisbon Treaty ratification, the last thing they probably want is another cause for hand-wringing.

Energy Wars

It's been freezing the past week here in Zurich, a situation I'm sharing with the rest of Europe as a brutal cold snap extends from London to Warsaw. And just as the chill is forcing us all to huddle around our heaters, a crisis is unfolding that could cut off the energy keeping us warm.

Since New Years Day, Russia has been steadily restricting its gas supply to Europe amid a dispute with Ukraine, which it accuses of siphoning off gas in transit. Now seven days later, exports of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine appear to have completely stopped. With the EU dependant on Russia for about a quarter of its total gas supplies, 80 percent of which is pumped through Ukraine, the situation is quickly becoming a crisis. It is a crisis many have predicted as they have warned of Europe's over-dependence on Russian energy.

Now the Balkans are facing a situation where they could in a matter of days face rolling blackouts. Bulgaria says it has sufficient supplies for just a few more days, and already thousands of Bulgarian homes are without heat as temperatures in some parts of the country hit -16 degrees celcius. Other countries have now dipped into their strategic reserves. Germany and Italy, which together account for nearly 50 percent of the gas consumed in the EU, are also in danger. So far the Ukraine disruption has only been felt in the Balkans and in Greece, but this could change as soon as tomorrow.

Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom has accused Ukraine of stealing 15 percent of gas flowing through that country intended for Western Europe, however the Ukrainian government has insisted that amount is being lost through technical malfunctions only.

A Preview of Things to Come

Even if this energy crisis is resolved, it will still likely be an important lesson for the EU. Analysts have been warning that energy independence for the block is the most pressing issue it currently faces. With Russia proving to be an increasingly assertive and sometime hostile neighbor, the fact that the country could, if it wanted, plunge Europe into a deep freeze is very worrying. Even these minor disputes over one pipeline can cause huge disruptions.

Now that Serbia’s government has agreed to sell its oil and gas company, NIS, to Russia’s Gazprom, it looks like Russia will achieve its goal of building a pipeline called "South Stream" to send gas directly into the EU. Gazprom has also done similar deals with EU members Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria, all of which is a direct challenge to the European pipeline project Nabucco, which would bring gas to Europe from Iran and Azerbaijan via Turkey, reducing EU dependence on Russia. But the Nabucco project seems to be going nowhere while Russia's plans to build dedicated pipeways to the EU moves quickly ahead.

Russia insists that the Ukraine siphoning off energy is the real threat to EU gas supplies, but foreign policy analysts know better. It is precisely the fact that the EU is reliant on Russia for energy, no matter how or through whom it is supplied, that is worrying to many here.

EU unveils climate change package

At long last, the European Commission unveiled its much anticipated energy and climate change package today, and it's a doozy.

As reported on Certain Ideas of Europe, the plan promises to deliver steep cuts in greenhouse gases, job security for heavy energy users like steel works, a whopping increase in renewable energy production, lots more biofuels and greater energy security, with reduced dependence on unstable energy suppliers. The overarching theme is to make Europe the leader in combating global climate change.

But as the Economist points out, even as they were unveiling the new policy one of their main policy goals - a common European energy policy - was again being thwarted right in their backyard. Today Serbia’s government agreed to sell its oil and gas company, NIS, to Russia’s Gazprom. It's one more step toward Russia's goal of building a pipeline called "South Stream" to send gas directly into the EU. Gazprom has also done similar deals with EU members Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria. All of this is a direct challenge to the European pipeline project Nabucco, which would bring gas to Europe from Iran and Azerbaijan via Turkey, reducing EU dependence on Russia.

The energy and climate change package is in many ways just as much about giving Europe a common energy policy as it is about combating climate change. The hope is that if the EU could get enough energy weight that the smaller countries won't be tempted to do individual deals with Gazprom. It could work, but the Nabucco project so far seems to be going nowhere while Russia is churning ahead. And a future in which the EU is dependant on Russia for its energy needs is a future no one in Brussels wants to see. Well, maybe no one except the Russian ambassador.