Today's divides aren't between states, they're across them

In Europe and America, today's urban educated elites have more in common with their counterparts in other countries than their own compatriots. It is resulting in a new type of international nationalism.

I was in Belgrade last week moderating at the Belgrade Security Forum, an annual policy dialogue about Balkan and European issues. 

During a discussion on challenging inequality, one of the panelists made a point that stuck with me. Responding to a comment from former Greek prime minister George Papandreaou about the uneven benefits of globalization, Hakan Altinay from the Global Civics Academy noted that the benefits are being felt by a certain class in each country, and that is bringing them closer together across borders while they drift ever-further apart from their countrymen. 

People working in and around the European Union institutions in Brussels are often accused of living in a bubble, forming an international echo chamber in which they have more in common with each other than with people back home in their own countries. But in fact, this is a phenomenon that is linking national capitals across Europe - and it has little connection to the EU. The bubble isn't just in Brussels. It is spread across Europe's cities.

A few days later, I heard a very similar description of the situation in the US on NBC's Meet the Press, America's main public affairs program. During a 'data download' segment, host Chuck Todd described how NBC News had crunched the numbers. Despite the caricature of America being divided between red and blue states, the divide is really between red and blue people - and that split defies geography.

Mladic arrest: Green light for Serbia in EU

Ratko Mladic, the Serbian general who orchestrated the largest mass murder in Europe since World War II in the 1990's, was arrested in Serbia yesterday. His continued freedom was the biggest issue blocking Serbia from being considered for entry into the EU. But the suspicious timing of the arrest, coming literally just as EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was arriving in Belgrade for a planned state visit, has some commentators saying Serbia has not adopted an attitude of contrition but is instead being dragged along unwillingly by the necessity of EU membership.

Mladic led the Bosnian Serb military force when that country was rocked by its religious civil war from 1992 to 1995 between the Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosniaks and Orthodox Serbs. He orchestrated not only the brutal three year siege of the capital Sarajevo but also the Srebrenica Massacre, where 8,000 Muslim men and boys were systematically slaughtered by Serb forces. He was indicted in asentia for crimes against humanity after the war, but he was harbored by the Serbs until 2002 when the country said it would cooperate with the international criminal court in The Hague. He then went into a sort of 'hiding in plain site'. He was spotted often at weddings and football games and even filmed at them. This despite a $5 million dollar reward for information leading to his capture.

Anti-gay riot in Serbia deals blow to EU hopes

Some 140 people were injured and 200 arrested over the weekend in the Serbian capital of Belgrade as ultranationalist rioters sought to disrupt a gay pride march going through the city protected by armed guards. As the country seeks to join the European Union, the embarrassing incident is just the latest to demonstrate the gulf between the "good behaviour" demonstrated by the Serbian government and the "bad behaviour" exhibited by a large segment of the Serbian population. Or at least that's how Brussels sees it, and that gulf continues to make EU officials very anxious.

The new tension this riot creates with Brussels is heightened by the fact that there were several EU officials marching in the parade to show solidarity – including an expected appearance by the EU ambassador to Serbia. Today Jelko Kacin, who leads the European Parliament's unit looking at Serbian accession, told the Associated Press that the riots "show an elementary lack" of tolerance for minority rights in Serbia and the "inefficiency" of the state in preventing this trend. The march this weekend was the first one to be organised since the last attempt in 2001 resulted in mass chaos and street brawls as nationalists and football supporters' clubs attacked the gay rights marchers. Another march had been planned for last year but was cancelled because of concern over the violence. This year the parade was protected by 5,000 police officers – which equals roughly three officers per pride marcher.

Dutch drop objection to Serbia in EU

Serbia moved a step closer to joining the EU today as the Netherlands withdrew its objection to the accession.

The EU had been in an 18-month deadlock over whether to grant Serbia free trade and association, which is a precursor to membership. The Dutch, who are hosting the international criminal court proceedings against Serbs accused of genocide during the Balkan civil wars, had insisted for more cooperation from Serbia in tracking down war criminals first.

Serbia had argued it legitimately couldn’t find the accused, which seemed doubtful considering many of them were walking around the country in broad daylight. However Serbia recently arrested two key leaders, and apparently that was enough to satisfy Dutch concerns. Though the Dutch foreign affairs minister said the tribunal still needs more cooperation from Serbia.

Europe goes on holiday

When it rains it pours, and it looks like the last week while I was away brought a surge of big news across Europe while I was lying out on the beach. From the capture of Serbian war criminal Radovan Karadzic, to Barack Obama’s momentous trip across Europe, to the disastrous defeat for Gordon Brown’s Labour party in Glasgow East, it was a big week. And all packed in before European politicians jetted off for their August holiday. One thing’s for sure, they’re going to have a lot to think about while they lay out on their beach chairs.

In the UK, as predicted, the Labour defeat at the hands of the Scottish National Party in the Glasgow East by-election has meant the knives are now out for Gordon Brown. This solidly Labour district hasn’t seen a Labour loss in decades. If the Labour party can’t win here, where can it win? The whole party now knows it needs to make a drastic change quickly, but it appears to be splitting itself asunder over what that change should be. Should Gordon Brown step down as prime minister and allow a fresh, non-Blairite face to step in? It’s surely a tempting idea for the party, but the problem is there isn’t any obvious candidate to step into the role. Those supporting Brown are warning that if he is pressures to resign it will mean Labour will lose the parliament. Brown already came in without an election, and if the Labour party switches leadership yet again without an election, chances are there will be a roaring demand from the public to call one as soon as a new person steps in. With Labour now polling at unprecedented lows, the Conservatives would likely win such an election.

Pro-Europeans win in Serbia

Brussels must be elated today after the Serbian general election yesterday yielded a victory for President Boris Tadic's moderate pro-European party. Though many had feared that Kosovo's recent declaration of independence would give the upper hand to the nationalist party - who would have stopped EU accession talks and instead allied Serbia with Russia - the moderate party won a handy mandate-giving majority.

There will be wide speculation as to whether the victory is a result of the 'carrot and stick' approach adopted by Brussels over the past few weeks. Two weeks ago a deal between the European Union and Serbia to fast-track its membership in the union was reached. The pre-membership pact with Belgrade that would enhance trade and cooperation and speed the process by which Serbia could eventually join the union. Though there was hesitation by some EU nations to come to such an agreement because of a lack of cooperation by Belgrade in handing over war criminals to the international court trying people for crimes committed during the Yugoslav civil wars, they eventually relented in order to show Serbian voters that there would be a reward for putting the moderate party in power.

Serbia gets a deal

Despite many assertions that it would never happen, the much-discussed deal between the European Union and Serbia to fast-track its membership in the union has come to pass. Yesterday the EU signed a pre-membership pact with Belgrade that would enhance trade and cooperation and speed the process by which Serbia could eventually join the union.

The timing of the agreement is no accident. The deal was rushed through in Brussels ahead of a new round of elections happening in Serbia in two weeks. The EU is desperate to avoid a defeat of the pro-Western party by the Nationalist party, and the agreement is meant to be a signal to Serbian voters that if the country cooperates, it will be rewarded with EU membership.

Serbia today is town between adopting a pro-EU path or spurning the union and aligning itself with Moscow. The presidential election in February saw the moderate pro-EU candidate Boris Tadic narrowly defeat his nationalist, pro-Moscow rival Tomislav Nikolic. But the president is a largely symbolic post, and the real test will be in the general election on May 11, when the country will decide which bloc it wants to put in power.

The world's newest country

It’s official, Kosovo is now an independent state. Or is it?

On Saturday a long-awaited vote by Kosovo’s parliament declared it to be an independent state and no longer part of Serbia. In reality, Serbia hasn’t controlled Kosovo for nine years. The territory has been run by the United Nations and NATO since 1999 when NATO intervened to stop a Serbian crackdown on the separatist movement there, a crackdown which sometimes took the form of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Kosovo is today dominated by ethnic Albanians, but is the historic heartland of the medieval Serbian state.

However the road to nationhood isn’t as simple as just a proclamation. Serbia vehemently opposes the move, and its leaders say they will fight to the end to prevent Kosovo’s independence. Serbia filed legal charges against Kosovo's leadership Monday for creating a "false state" and vowed to block any attempts to allow Kosovo to join international associations. It has also declared the new state invalid and illegal. Serbia’s traditional ally Russia has said it also rejects the move and will use its seat on the UN security council to block the body from recognizing the country. The US, Britain, France and Germany are expected to recognize the state within days.

Tadic wins in Serbia

The European Union breathed a collective sigh of relief yesterday as Serbia reelected pro-Europe Serbian president Boris Tadic, delivering a blow to his rival, ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic.

Tadic has sought to improve Serbia’s ties with the West and put Serbia on the path to EU membership. Nikolic wanted to limit ties with the EU and instead ally Serbia with Russia. Tadic won by a slim margin in an election with a high turnout at 67 percent.

The election was thought to be pivotal to the looming independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo, which has for years been under UN occupation following the NATO intervention in the Serbian civil wars of the 1990’s. The EU now wants to take over policing of an independent Serbia. Though both candidates are opposed to Kosovo’s independence, Tadic sees membership in the EU as crucial to Serbia’s future. It is therefore thought that though he will protest any plan for Kosovo independence, in the end he will go along with it in exchange for a faster road to EU membership.

In a move to influence the election, the EU last week made a move to grant an ‘interim pact on trade and cooperation’ with Serbia, hoping to send the message to Serbians that more rewards would follow if they elected Tadic.

Now that the election has passed it may just be a matter of weeks before Kosovo declares independence, but it remains to be seen how Serbia, and perhaps more importantly Russia, react.

EU considers concession to Serbia to influence election

The diplomatic maneuvering over Serbia’s upcoming election got a little more interesting today. It has emerged that the EU is considering signing an ‘interim pact on trade and cooperation’ with Serbia before the February 3 presidential election.

The move is an attempt to give a boost to the pro-Europe incumbent, Boris Tadic. It is also a first step in granting concesions to Serbia (toward its entrance into the EU) in exchange for it allowing the breakaway republic of Kosovo to declare independence.

This type of interim pact would normally not go into force until the EU signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Belgrade, but such an agreement requires the signature of all 27 member countries and the Netherlands and Belgium have refused to sign it unless Serbia hands over a war crimes suspect, former Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic, charged with genocide for the 1995 Srebrenica massacre of 7,000 Bosnian Muslims. Serbia has refused to do so.

EU unveils climate change package

At long last, the European Commission unveiled its much anticipated energy and climate change package today, and it's a doozy.

As reported on Certain Ideas of Europe, the plan promises to deliver steep cuts in greenhouse gases, job security for heavy energy users like steel works, a whopping increase in renewable energy production, lots more biofuels and greater energy security, with reduced dependence on unstable energy suppliers. The overarching theme is to make Europe the leader in combating global climate change.

But as the Economist points out, even as they were unveiling the new policy one of their main policy goals - a common European energy policy - was again being thwarted right in their backyard. Today Serbia’s government agreed to sell its oil and gas company, NIS, to Russia’s Gazprom. It's one more step toward Russia's goal of building a pipeline called "South Stream" to send gas directly into the EU. Gazprom has also done similar deals with EU members Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria. All of this is a direct challenge to the European pipeline project Nabucco, which would bring gas to Europe from Iran and Azerbaijan via Turkey, reducing EU dependence on Russia.

The energy and climate change package is in many ways just as much about giving Europe a common energy policy as it is about combating climate change. The hope is that if the EU could get enough energy weight that the smaller countries won't be tempted to do individual deals with Gazprom. It could work, but the Nabucco project so far seems to be going nowhere while Russia is churning ahead. And a future in which the EU is dependant on Russia for its energy needs is a future no one in Brussels wants to see. Well, maybe no one except the Russian ambassador.

Time for Serbia to pick a side

The Serbian presidential election over the weekend could hardly have been encouraging for Brussels. Ultranationalist candidate Tomislav Nikolic emerged the winner with 39.4 percent of the vote, beating the 35.4 percent of incumbent candidate Boris Tadic. Since neither candidate won a majority, a second round of voting will be held in two weeks.

The election is being closely watched because it has huge implications for the future of the Balkans. The Serbian people can choose either Mr. Nikolic, who wants closer ties with Russia and is opposed to NATO, the US and the EU, or Mr. Tadic, who wants Serbia to join the EU and wants it to distance itself from Russia. In short, the election will determine whether Serbia takes the path toward Russia or the path toward the EU.

The 61 percent turnout – the highest since the fall of Milosevic in 2000 – shows how seriously the Serbs are taking the vote, and the result of the weekend shows that they are almost evenly split over which direction Serbia should take.

EU hopes to be hero in Kosovo

As we speak the EU is having what will probably be the shortest European Union summit so far, with it having started at ten and due to get out shortly after lunch. Many hope this is a sign that the ‘new EU’ promised by the tightening-up of the reform treaty has arrived. Now that the reform treat has been agreed, the union can get down to business, the argument goes.

For those that want to see an efficient and effective EU, the proposed resolution of today’s meeting is a promising sign as well. The summit is set to agree to offer Serbia a fast track to EU membership in exchange for its acquiescence in Kosovo bid for independence. The agreement would also create an EU police force to protect and stabilize the new country, finally allowing the US-led NATO who have been occupying the country for six years to leave. The draft summit statement says the mission for Kosovo would have up to 1,800 police, judges and prosecutors – making it the largest such mission ever undertaken by the bloc.

Kosovo showdown looming

The deadline for answering the Kosovo question is looming. Some sort of government needs to be put in place by 10 December, when the UN mandate ends. I’m particularly interested in these developments because I send my rent cheque to Kosovo every month as that’s where my landlord is (weird story). If Kosovo becomes independent, he and his family will probably move back here (since he is Serbian) and I’ll be out of a home!

Essentially the problem is this: a majority of the people living in the Serbian province of Kosovo are ethnic Albanians (Albania being the neighbouring country to the west). As with other areas in the larger Yugoslav civil war, a big part of the conflict was tension between the Muslim Albanians and the Christian Serbs. During the Yugoslav civil war in the 1990’s, Albanians in Kosovo conducted a peaceful secessionist movement. In 1995, after the Dayton Agreement ended the Bosnian War but did not address Kosovo, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was formed in 1996 with the goal of attaining an independent Kosovo. They employed guerilla-style tactics against Serbian police forces, paramilitaries and regular civilians. The situation devolved into complete chaos and Serbs began massacring Albanians, triggering a US-led 78-day NATO campaign in 1999. An estimated 10,000 ethnic Albanians and 3,000 Serbs were killed during the fighting, a majority of them civilians and many through a campaign of ethnic cleansing.