Ring Around the Russia

Things seem to be getting worse before they get better in Georgia. At the moment, according to Georgia, there is a 100-vehicle tank convoy heading again toward the capital, and Russia now controls 1/3 of the country. The Sarkozy-brokered EU cease fire agreement doesn't appear to be working.

As the world tries to figure out what to do about this mess, I was struck by something in John McCain's editorial, entitled, We Are all Georgians, in the Wall Street Journal today. McCain's editorial was strongly worded and stark, and there's speculation tonight that President Bush's decision to send Secretary of State Condoleeza Rise to Tblisi was driven by not being a desire to not be overshadowed by McCain. Meanwhile Obama seems to be nowhere to be found.

McCain's editorial is almost like a little trip down memory lane, presenting a renewed us-versus-them approach when it comes to Russia. But most interestingly, it seems to display a complete misunderstanding of current geopolitics. Either that or he's being deliberately disingenuous.

Eurozone in trouble

The jury's still out as to whether continental Europe will be partly immune to the financial woes being experienced in the US, but the latest data isn't promising. Figures released today showed that the economies in the fifteen countries that use the euro - known as the eurozone - contracted by .2 percent between April and June. The news is likely to accelerate the steep drop that the euro has been experiencing on currency exchange markets over the past few weeks.

The data is heightening concerns that the eurozone is going to follow the US into a recession. Reacting to the report, a German finance minister said Germany's economy could contract again in the next quarter. That would officially mean Germany is in a recession. And given that Germany is the main driver of growth in the eurozone and the dominating economy, that would likely mean recession for the whole zone.

Russia attacks

It’s certainly been a tense couple days, with the west watching in disbelief as Russia launches what seems to be a full-scale invasion of its Southern neighbor Georgia. Considering this is a country that, theoretically, almost joined NATO at the Bucharest summit a few months ago, this is quite a provocation to the West. Nothing seems clear right now about what Russia’s intentions are or even what they’re doing, but one thing is certain: relations between the West and Russia have been fundamentally altered by the last few days events.

According to witness reports, Russian tanks are now making their way to the Georgian capital of Tblisi, and nobody seems to know what they’re going to do once they get there. The Russian military is denying the claims. At the same time, there have been reports that Russian planes are bombing Georgian ships in the Black Sea.

This is a key test for how Europe and the United States are going to respond, and it will be interesting to see whether they take different paths. French president Sarkozy seems to be trying to take a leading role in dealing with the conflict, even suggesting that there should be an EU peacekeeping force put into Georgia. US president Bush’s reaction has been muddled and strangle by the inability of the US to really do anything about it.

Moving to Paris

Now that I definitively have my Italian citizenship, it’s come time to enter the next phase of my life. What that is I’m not quite sure yet, but in the medium term I’ve decided that it involves moving on from my current job and heading over to the continent. I’ve been writing for my current publisher for two and a half years now, and although I’ve learned a lot and been afforded some great opportunities through it, the time has come to segue over to a different area of reporting.

I took this job, reporting for a monthly business publication and web site, when my assignment as a Washington political correspondent ended back in 2005. At the time, I was finding that my relative lack of business and economic knowledge was often a hindrance in my political reporting, and I was thinking about ways to fix that problem. Journalists, who are notorious for being more left-brained, have often been criticized in the US for their lack of business knowledge (though I’ve found that to be less the case in the UK). So I decided to seek out a financial reporting job in New York City to get up to speed. I was also eager at the time to return to the area I’m from, and the most plentiful reporting jobs in New York are in finance. I received a few offers but went for a position covering private equity investment, something I knew basically nothing about before I started writing on it. Since then I’ve covered buyouts in the US, venture capital investment in intellectual property in Europe, and private equity real estate investment in Asia. So luckily I’ve had the opportunity to get quite a diverse array of financial reporting experience under my belt, even if it was all private equity and venture capital related.

Prime Minister Miliband?

The British buzz today is all about UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s manifesto in yesterday’s Guardian which, depending on who you ask, is either being grossly misinterpreted by the media or an outrageous act of disloyalty. Right now the question remains: Is David Miliband going to challenge Gordon Brown in the fall?

His interview later today with BBC Radio Two's Jeremy Vine may settle this question if he explicitly denies planning to challenge Brown – which apparently Downing Street is demanding he do. If he doesn’t, then chances are he almost certainly plans to, and it will be all out civil war in the Labour Party.

Back when Tony Blair first stepped down in 2007, there was suggestion that there should be a contest for the Labour leadership and Miliband was always one of the first names suggested. But in the end there wasn’t one, and Gordon Brown – who had been Tony’s right hand man as Chancellor of the Exchequer (head of UK finances) during the Blair years – replaced Blair uncontested. Now that Brown has had such a bad run of things, and following the disastrous result in the Glasgow East byelection – Labour is in full panic mode and looking for a solution. Miliband now appears ready to challenge Brown and make a bid for the leadership.

Europe goes on holiday

When it rains it pours, and it looks like the last week while I was away brought a surge of big news across Europe while I was lying out on the beach. From the capture of Serbian war criminal Radovan Karadzic, to Barack Obama’s momentous trip across Europe, to the disastrous defeat for Gordon Brown’s Labour party in Glasgow East, it was a big week. And all packed in before European politicians jetted off for their August holiday. One thing’s for sure, they’re going to have a lot to think about while they lay out on their beach chairs.

In the UK, as predicted, the Labour defeat at the hands of the Scottish National Party in the Glasgow East by-election has meant the knives are now out for Gordon Brown. This solidly Labour district hasn’t seen a Labour loss in decades. If the Labour party can’t win here, where can it win? The whole party now knows it needs to make a drastic change quickly, but it appears to be splitting itself asunder over what that change should be. Should Gordon Brown step down as prime minister and allow a fresh, non-Blairite face to step in? It’s surely a tempting idea for the party, but the problem is there isn’t any obvious candidate to step into the role. Those supporting Brown are warning that if he is pressures to resign it will mean Labour will lose the parliament. Brown already came in without an election, and if the Labour party switches leadership yet again without an election, chances are there will be a roaring demand from the public to call one as soon as a new person steps in. With Labour now polling at unprecedented lows, the Conservatives would likely win such an election.