Mladic arrest: Green light for Serbia in EU

Ratko Mladic, the Serbian general who orchestrated the largest mass murder in Europe since World War II in the 1990's, was arrested in Serbia yesterday. His continued freedom was the biggest issue blocking Serbia from being considered for entry into the EU. But the suspicious timing of the arrest, coming literally just as EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was arriving in Belgrade for a planned state visit, has some commentators saying Serbia has not adopted an attitude of contrition but is instead being dragged along unwillingly by the necessity of EU membership.

Mladic led the Bosnian Serb military force when that country was rocked by its religious civil war from 1992 to 1995 between the Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosniaks and Orthodox Serbs. He orchestrated not only the brutal three year siege of the capital Sarajevo but also the Srebrenica Massacre, where 8,000 Muslim men and boys were systematically slaughtered by Serb forces. He was indicted in asentia for crimes against humanity after the war, but he was harbored by the Serbs until 2002 when the country said it would cooperate with the international criminal court in The Hague. He then went into a sort of 'hiding in plain site'. He was spotted often at weddings and football games and even filmed at them. This despite a $5 million dollar reward for information leading to his capture.

Anti-gay riot in Serbia deals blow to EU hopes

Some 140 people were injured and 200 arrested over the weekend in the Serbian capital of Belgrade as ultranationalist rioters sought to disrupt a gay pride march going through the city protected by armed guards. As the country seeks to join the European Union, the embarrassing incident is just the latest to demonstrate the gulf between the "good behaviour" demonstrated by the Serbian government and the "bad behaviour" exhibited by a large segment of the Serbian population. Or at least that's how Brussels sees it, and that gulf continues to make EU officials very anxious.

The new tension this riot creates with Brussels is heightened by the fact that there were several EU officials marching in the parade to show solidarity – including an expected appearance by the EU ambassador to Serbia. Today Jelko Kacin, who leads the European Parliament's unit looking at Serbian accession, told the Associated Press that the riots "show an elementary lack" of tolerance for minority rights in Serbia and the "inefficiency" of the state in preventing this trend. The march this weekend was the first one to be organised since the last attempt in 2001 resulted in mass chaos and street brawls as nationalists and football supporters' clubs attacked the gay rights marchers. Another march had been planned for last year but was cancelled because of concern over the violence. This year the parade was protected by 5,000 police officers – which equals roughly three officers per pride marcher.

The Swiss Say Yes to Europe

Brussels was breathing a sigh of relief today as the news of yesterday's Swiss referendum result reached people's desks. There had been some apprehension about the vote, which extends free-movement rules to new EU entrants Bulgaria and Romania, as opinion polls taken before the vote seemed to suggest that it would have a razor-thin margin. In the end, a massive 60 percent of voters said 'JA.' Only four of Switzerland's 26 cantons voted no.

The vote is being called a "broad yes" by the Swiss to economic collaboration with Europe, and a mandate for pro-European parties in the Swiss government to increase ties. The news is already being taken as a sign that the financial crisis may lead to a more receptive attitude toward the EU and coordinated pan-European policies. With the Irish revote on the Lisbon Treaty just around the corner, many in Brussels are hoping this is a trend that will continue. But is the vote's outcome the result of changing EU attitudes in the face of the financial crisis, or was it simply the result of a skillful vote mobilisation effort on the ground by pro-EU groups?

Switzerland has a rather unusual arrangement with the EU. While it's not a member, it has a series of seven 'special accords' with the block that make it effectively a shadow member. It isn't an official member, so it doesn't have any representation in the European Parliament or Commission, but the accords oblige Switzerland to follow many areas of EU legislation. Free movement, which allows any EU citizen to work in any EU country, is one of those areas. However, now that EU membership hassuch a change must be put to a public vote (they basically have to have a public vote for everything in Switzerland). But here's where it gets tricky. The EU has made clear that Switzerland doesn't have the right to 'pick and choose' which parts of EU law it will follow, and under the infamous "guillotine clause," if the Swiss voted no to extending free movement to Bulgaria and Romania, all of their agreements with the EU would be torn up. Considering that the vast majority of Switzerland's trade is with the EU, and that non-Swiss EU citizens make up a huge percentage of its skilled workforce, a collapse in the accords would be catastrophic for the country's economy. So one has to ask, is this really a vote for increased EU ties, or a desire to maintain the status quo? And if it's now economically impossible for the Swiss to vote against policies enacted in Brussels, isn't this really just an illusory independence anyway?

Switzerland's biggest political party, the rightist Swiss People's Party, had waged an aggressive ad campaign urging people to vote no, arguing that the two new EU entrants were too poor to be allowed unfettered access to Swiss jobs. (this photo is of one of their billboards that was on the street outside my parents' house). The issue was complicated by the fact that Switzerland has had a less than smooth history with immigration from the Balkans. During the 1990's the country took in many refugees from the former Yugoslavia as the Balkan wars raged on. Now the country has a sizable former Yugoslav population, particularly in Zurich, which hasn't integrated with the wider Swiss society and who treated with much hostility from the native Swiss population (complete with a nasty epithet that I won't repeat here). Many, particularly in German-speaking Switzerland, aren't crazy about the idea of taking in more immigrants from Serbia's neighbors in the Balkans.

A Sign of the Times?

So does the wide victory in Switzerland mean that people's fears about the financial crisis are going to make them less likely to snub the EU, for fear of the economic consequences? I've speculated that the economic turmoil in Ireland will likely make the Irish too scared to vote against the Lisbon Treaty again when the revote occurs later this year. It seems likely that the hold-up in approval by the Czech Parliament may also be resolved quickly now that the future looks so uncertain. On the other hand, many commentators have speculated that the recession could lead to an increase in populism and protectionism, which could put the European single market in jeopardy. The recent walk-outs in the UK and the one-day strike in France have certainly been a worrying sign in that direction.

For now though, Brussels has reason to be encouraged by the Swiss result.