Eurovision under attack…by Iran

Azerbaijan’s close historical and ethnic relationship with Iran is causing discomfort in the lead-up to the Eurovision Song Contest final next weekend, hosted in Baku. Last week angry Iranian demonstrators, probably government-organised, surrounded the Azerbaijani consulate in Tabriz condemning the country for hosting a ‘gay contest’. 

This week a Eurovision news website was attacked by Azeri hackers in protest of Eurovision, which they said was a “gay pride event”. It is not yet known whether these were Azeris in Azerbaijan or Iran - but the later is more likely.

The contest organisers have appeared unsure of how to respond to the protests. Eurovision is, after all, not actually a “gay event” as the Iranians have claimed. But it is true that it has a large gay following, and there has been concern about the safety of the many gay fans who will be converging on Baku this week for the show.

Azerbaijan, as is evident from its flag, is a Muslim country. But given that the former Soviet Socialist Republic is largely secular, it has been a matter of speculation whether this would cause problems for gay fans (homosexuality was decriminalised in the country in 2000, in order to join the Council of Europe). Turkey, another Muslim but nominally secular country, hosted the contest in 2004 without incident.

But interestingly, much of the religious-based resistance to the hosting of the conference has come from neighbouring Iran, where the majority (3/4) of the Azerbaijani people live. Iran’s population is 30% Azerbaijani.  

Eurovision controversy starts early as Armenia pulls out

As predicted, this is going to be one tumultuous year for Eurovision, the yearly singing competition where European countries compete with original songs (for Americans, it's a bit like American Idol and Miss America combined). News this week that Armenia has pulled out of the competition after Azerbaijan's president described Armenians as the country's "main enemies" has noticably rattled the competition's organisers.

The song contest, which has been held since 1956, is hosted each year by the country which one the previous year. Last year the contest was won by Azerbaijan, the Muslim former Soviet republic in the Caucasus on the border with Iran. The definition of 'Europe' has been stretched over the past decades to encorporate new countries such as Turkey, Israel and even one year Morocco.

But this year's contest in Baku is going to be an awkward one, given that Azerbaijan is still in an active conflict with its neighbor Armenia, which also participates in Eurovision and takes it very seriously. Having the warring countries both participating in Eurovision has caused problems in the past. In 2009 a number of Azerbaijanis who had voted for Armenia's entry Anush and Inga (pictured below) during the contest that year were reportedly summoned for questioning by the Ministry of National Security.

Azerbaijan could make this an awkward year for Eurovision

It’s a new year, and of course this week everyone’s minds are on one thing – Eurovision 2012! Ok maybe not, but an interesting article in Der Speigel this week details the way in which Azerbaijan is already engaged in a public relations push ahead of their turn to host the world’s largest non-sporting television event in May of this year.

Azerbaijan will host the contest because they won last year. But there are concerns that this could be one the most problematic year in the show’s 56-year history because of the human rights record and military conflicts of the host country. Seemingly aware of this less-than-stellar reputation, the Azerbaijanis have reportedly stepped up a charm offensive in the core members of the European Broadcasting Union – Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK. Of course this is all part of a larger charm offensive by the oil-rich country, particularly as the Nabuco Pipeline project moves forward.

But could this year’s contest highlight the awkward relationship between the oil-hungry West and this autocratic regime? Or, as many argue, will an international event like this help to bring Azerbaijan more into line with the West and with Democratic principles? I suspect it may be the former. Even as Azerbaijan pursues its charm offensive, there are reports circulating that they are evicting Baku residents in order to build the 25,000-seat arena that will house the show this year.

Could a strong EU solve the Iranian hostage crisis?

It looks like the Iranian hostage crisis (it’s like déjà vu all over again) may be cooling down, although any hope in this direction obviously has to be tempered with a healthy dose of skepticism. It’s been over a week now since Iran stopped a British vessel in the Persian Gulf and arrested 15 British sailors, saying they had entered Iranian territorial waters. Britain is denying that they were in Iran’s territory and have showed GPS records and photographs to prove it. But Iran has refused to back down and is demanding an apology from the UK in order to even begin discussing the sailors’ return, along with an agreement to never violate Iran’s territory again. With images of the one female seaman being paraded in a headscarf all over British media, many are naturally outraged and are furious at the government’s inaction.

But the reality is, Britain doesn’t have a whole lot of options here. The UN security council couldn’t get a resolution condemning the Iranian action (Russia refused to go along). Everybody involved in this, including the Iranians, know that the ship was not actually in Iranian territory. The cause for this situation goes much deeper than that, having little to do with Iran and the UK and everything to do with Iran and the US, which still have no direct talks with each other. Iran is still seething over the detention of several Iranian diplomats in Iraq who have not been released. Just today this story broke in the Independent which casts some light on the real reason for this diplomatic stand-off. Apparently the US tried to kidnap some very high-ranking Iranian officials and failed. This move may have been a rush by the Iranians to get something to bargain with before the US makes another attempt. And since the US refuses to speak directly with Iran through diplomacy, kidnapping soldiers from a country allied with the US may be the only way they're choosing to communicate.

"Arrogant self-delusion"

Wow. Did anyone else see Jordan's King Abdullah on This Week this morning? His observation that the middle east could see three simultaneous civil wars in 2007 was really scary. He painted a scenario in which the Palestinians, Iraq and Lebanon all descend into civil war and chaos. This would be an earth-shattering catastrophe that could easily spread even further to neighboring countries.

And as long as we're talking about all things shocking GOP Senator Chuck Hagel's editorial in today's Washington Post literally made my jaw drop to the floor. It was probably the most sobering, brutal and realistic assessment of what has happened and what needs to happen in Iraq to ever come from a Republican. And it's dead on.

Turkey invading Iraq?

As if things in the Middle East weren't bad enough, today it was revealed that Turkey may take a page from the Israeli playbook and invade Northern Iraq, one of the disaster scenarios that was posited before the war began.

The North of Iraq, which is predominantly Kurdish and controlled as an autonomous zone, has been the most stable and nonviolent part of the country since the occupation. This has mainly been because Kurds are sitting back and watching Sunni and Shia Arabs kill each other, hoping that if they wait it out eventually the country will break apart and an independent Kurdestan will be formed.

It would not be in their interest right now to attack American or Iraqi troops (neither of which can be found in great number in the North anyway). But it is in their interest to antagonize Turkey, because many Kurds hope that an independent Kurdestan will also include the Kurdish areas of Turkey and Iran.