Juncker's Wallonia bypass could save Brexit

Next week the Commission is expected to outline a plan in which governments will no longer have veto power over most EU trade deals. It could be a game-changer for the Brexit negotiations.

One year ago, as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prepared to board a plane tp Brussels to sign a landmark free trade deal with the European Union, he had a bone to pick with some fellow Francophones 4km to the south of the EU capital.

The deal was done and all 28 EU national governments had agreed to it. But the tiny region of Wallonia, the French-speaking, politically far-left Southern part of Belgium, was threatening to wield a veto. A region of 3.5 million people was about to unilaterally kill the trade deal agreed by the other 509 million. 

The premier of Wallonia asked Trudeau to cancel the visit, saying it would be a "provocation" to do so while Wallonia had not yet given its assent. The Canadian PM cancelled his flight, but he was not pleased. "If, in a week or two, we see that Europe is unable to sign a progressive trade agreement with a country like Canada, well then with whom will Europe do business in the years to come?" he asked.

Soft Brexit or Hard Brexit? It's a false choice

Today's vote in Wallonia against an EU-Canada free trade deal makes it painfully clear - Europeans will not approve any arrangement that lets Britain have its cake and eat it too.

Over the past weeks, people in the UK have been engaged in a tortured debate - should we have a "hard Brexit" or a "soft Brexit"?

A hard Brexit, viewed by most people (even the Brexiteers) as the worst outcome, would mean that the UK cuts economic ties with Europe, and continues to trade with the EU only on WTO terms. In other words, the UK is left with the same relationship with the EU enjoyed by Morocco.

A 'soft Brexit' would mean the UK retains market access while formally leaving the EU. This would occur either by the UK joining the EEA (à la Norway and Iceland) or negotiating bilateral treaties (à la Switzerland). Either of the latter two options would involve compromise. Crucially, the EU has made clear that the UK can't have either of these "soft Brexit" scenarios without maintaining freedom of movement (the ability for EU citizens to live and work in any EU country).

After 18 months, Belgium will have a government again

Belgium will make history this weekend in two ways. When a new government is finally formed on Sunday it will end the longest period that any country has gone without a government in modern history. And when Elio di Rupo is appointed prime minister, Belgium will become the first country in the world to have an openly gay male head of government.

I've specified 'male' because Iceland actually beat Belgium to the punch for the first gay leader of any sex – their openly lesbian Socialist Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir was elected in 2009. In both countries the leader’s sexual orientation has been of little concern to the public or the media. In Belgium it is rarely ever mentioned, and in Iceland people were actually confused in 2009 when their PM’s sexual orientation received worldwide attention.

The sexual orientation of Di Rupo, also a Socialist, isn’t the only thing that makes him a different sort of politician. He is the son of Italian immigrants – a sizable population in Belgium’s Wallonia region who are descendants of the Italians who came to work in the mines in the early 20th century. This fact prompted one Belgian politician to say Di Rupo was evidence that the “American dream” is possible in Belgium.

Belgium hits one year with no government

A rather embarassing anniversary was reached here in Belgium yesterday - it has been one year since an inconclusive election threw the country into a period with no government. At the time, it would have seemed obscene to suggest that there would still be no government in Belgium in a year's time. But that's where we are today, and perhaps the only thing more surprising than the length of this governmentless period is the barely noticeable effet it has had on the country.

In truth, it's hard to say whether the current governmentless period hit it's one year mark yesterday or a few months earlier. The previous government of prime minister Yves Leterme collapsed in April of last year, so in truth Belgium has not had a government for a year and three months. Either way, this is the longest period any country in modern history has ever gone without a government. In February Belgium surpassed the previous record held by the fledgling Iraqi democracy.

Who punched whom? Brussels transit hangs in the balance

There are many expressions that expats have come up with to describe life in Belgium, but perhaps my favourite is this: "It's as if someone made surreal a country." No expression seemed more appropriate on Tuesday when the Brussels transit union suddenly called an immediate strike to protest the fact that a metro conductors had been punched by a passenger. But after a day of chaos with the city's entire transit system shut down, it emerged that in fact it was the conductor who had punched the passenger, not the other way around.

On Monday night the conductor got into an argument with a passenger and then throttled him. Afterward, fearing he would get in trouble, he lied and said the passenger had punched him. Upon hearing this, the transit workers union immediately rallied to his defence and that night, just two hours after the incident occurred, called an immediate strike. Every transit worker walked off the job, and did not come back the next morning.

So when I and everyone else went to the metro station Tuesday morning we found it shut - with no explanation. There was no sign, no people telling us what was going on, nothing. I had to go all the way back to my apartment and go online to find out what was going on. All metro trains, trams and buses didn't run the entire day. And with every cab taken, I had no choice but to work from home.

Belgian shame rally: can ideology be fought with neutrality?

Today more than 34,000 Belgians marched in a demonstration across Brussels demanding that the country's bickering politicians reach a compromise in the ongoing talks to form a government. Belgium has been without a government for 224 days now, the longest government-less period for any European country since the end of the Second World War. As the political crisis continues with no end in sight, there are increasing worries that this could finally be the end of the line for this country, which may be on the verge of splitting into separate Dutch-speaking and French-speaking halves.

I was out at the "Shame Belgium" march today and I was impressed by the very large turnout. It was particularly notable because the demonstration was not organised by unions or political parties, as is usually the case, but rather by a group of five young people via Facebook. The demonstration had no political or regional allegiance - organisers even said it didn't even have an official unionist or separatist stance. In fact the organisers even discouraged people from bringing Belgian flags, though clearly everyone chose to ignore that advice. The stated purpose of the rally was simply to demand that the politicians urgently get on with their negotiations to prevent the country descending into crisis.

“We must prepare for the end of Belgium”

Is it a bluff, or are they serious? That’s the question all the Belgian media is asking today after the Francophone Socialist party leaders made an abrupt U-turn this weekend and, for the first time, started openly talking about the break-up of the country.

Up until now only the Flemish Dutch-speaking politicians that have seriously proposed breaking up the country, while the Francophone parties have refused to even entertain the possibility. But that seemed to change quite suddenly this weekend after talks on forming a new Belgian government collapsed yet again and the king accepted the resignation of Socialist leader Elio di Rupo as lead negotiator. Francophone socialist Philippe Moureaux came out saying Belgium is on the verge of an orderly separation. Rudy Demotte, the head of the government of Wallonia, said that “all options” are now on the table for them. Francophone Socialist Laurette Onkelinx told the magazine DH Dimanche, “We must prepare for the end of Belgium, otherwise we might be the ones to suffer.”

No end in sight for Belgian political chaos

I just returned to Belgium this morning after a week in the US, and when I disembarked from the plane to my new country of residency I learned that it is one step closer to not being a country for much longer. The government talks following June's election have just collapsed – meaning the country still has no government and is unlikely to be able to form one before the end of the year. Not such great timing considering Belgium still holds the EU rotating presidency for the next 4 months. But even if that extra responsibility weren’t sitting on the Belgian government’s shoulders right now, this continuing chaos is starting to border on Kafka-esque absurdity. So as I readjust to life in Belgium this morning after a week home in the US, I’m yet again left asking – is there a compelling reason for this country to continue to exist?

Last night the leader of the French-speaking Socialist Party (PS), Elio di Rupo, offered his resignation to Belgian King Albert II after negotiations to form a new government broke down. He is trying to negotiate with the Flemish separatist party NVA, which won the majority of the vote in Flanders in the June election. Di Rupo’s Socialists won the majority of votes in Wallonia, and so the two parties with directly opposing goals must come to some kind of coalition agreement to form a national government with other parties. In the mean time, no government has existed at national level since April. But since most governance functions have by now been devolved to the three regions (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels), you’d never know the difference.

Flemish nationalists win big in Belgium

I’m back in cold, rainy Belgium, which is truly painful after a week in the warm sunshine. I spent this past weekend in the muddy, rain-soaked fields south of Waterloo, attending a reenactment of the decisive battle 200 years ago that spelled the final defeat for Napoleon. Despite the rain it was quite an experience (check out the video I shot below). I was particularly impressed with the international diversity of the people there, - both of the spectators and the 3,000 people participating in the battle. Most significantly, I noted that there seemed to be an even mix of Flemings and Walloons who had come to watch the battle. The harmony on the battlefield seemed a contrast to the battle going on at the moment between the country’s politicians.

The country went to the polls last Sunday to vote for a new government, and as predicted the result was inconclusive. But surprisingly, the election delivered more certainty than had been expected. There was a clear winner in both French-speaking Wallonia and Dutch-speaking Flanders. There was a large (though not surprising) victory for the Socialists in Wallonia, and a shock victory for the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), a nationalist party, in Flanders. Because the parties did so well in each of their regions, there is now a realistic prospect that the two could form a coalition by September, with the Socialist MP Elio di Rupo to be appointed prime minister. Significantly, he would become Belgium’s first Wallonian prime minister in decades.

Belgian elections - the EU fiasco around the corner

Belgians will go to the polls this Saturday to vote for a new government, just two weeks before the country is slated to take over the rotating EU presidency from Spain. Considering that it took Belgium nine months to form a government after the last general election in 2007, Brussels is getting increasingly worried about a potential leadership vacuum in the council after 1 July.

The difficulty, as with everything in Belgium, is over language. The Belgian government collapsed in April over a disagreement between French- and Dutch-speaking parties over whether an electoral district on the outskirts of Brussels should be part of the Brussels Capital Region or Flanders. It may sounds like an innocuous issue but it goes to the heart of the language conflict, as explained in this previous blog entry.

Belgian government collapses, yet again

I'm in Trier, Germany today, attending a seminar for journalists on the European Court of Justice (the EU equivalent of the US Supreme Court, though with some important differences). Though I may be away from Brussels for the day the news feed on my iphone started blowing up this afternoon with news about my new host country as it became official - the Belgian government has fallen. Though the country's king worked tirelessly over the weekend to try to sort out a compromise between the warring Frencophone and Dutch-speaking parties, he has been unable to bring peace to the parliament, and today accepted the resignation of the prime minister.

International media reaction to the news has been muted, most likely because this is starting to become such a routine event. The government last collapsed in July 2008, during a period where at one point there was no Belgian government for well over a year. Not that you would have noticed. Belgium has become so decentralised - with authority split between the three regions of Wallonia, Flanders and Brussels - that the national government hardly does anything any more.

Belgian government collapses

Here we go again. Last night the Belgian government collapsed, just four months after it was formed in March. Before then, the nation had been without a government for nine months while the French- and Dutch-speaking parties were unable to form a unity government.

Belgium’s King Albert II is considering the resignation, but he doesn’t really have much leeway to block it. The prime minister of the four-month-old coalition government, Yves Leterme, had set a deadline of July 15 for getting an agreement on devolving more power to the regions. Belgium is made up of Dutch-speaking Flanders in the North, French-speaking Wallonia in the South and Brussels, which is French-speaking but located within Flanders. The Flemish, who are wealthier, want more local power, but the Walloons are resisting this because it would marginalize their influence.

King steps in to end Belgian crisis

Belgium’s King Albert II has interceded in order to resolve the long-running crisis in Belgium, which has had no government for six months now as the Dutch-speaking north and French-speaking south have been unable to form a coalition government.

An emergency interim government has been formed, which can stay in office for no more than three months. Then the situation may be back to square one.

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the whole situation is that for the most part life has gone on as normal while the country has had no government, which has made many Belgians begin to question the point of having a government in the first place. But the situation was starting to affect the economy, and last week the European Commission warned that the political paralysis was beginning to affect Belgium's economy.

For more information on the history of the Belgian crisis you can read my blog entry about it here.