Why Spain will not object this time to an independent Scotland

Spain is less likely to veto EU accession for a Scotland that is leaving a non-EU country.

Today Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of Scotland, left an emergency cabinet meeting in Edinburgh and declared that her government will seek "immediate" bilateral discussions with Brussels to "protect Scotland's place in the EU."

She already said yesterday that a second referendum on Scottish independence was "highly likely" following the UK's vote to leave the EU. The vast majority of voters in Scotland, Northern Ireland and London voted to remain in the EU, but a majority of people in England and Wales voted to leave - resulting in a 52% vote for leave. 

All of it gives the impression of a vote driven by English nationalism - whether the leave voters realised it or not. With their vote, they may have created the nation-state of England. It now seems likely Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave the union.

Sturgeon has said it would be unconstitutional for Scotland to be taken out of the EU against its will.

Berliners and Madriders see Greek referendum very differently

Berliners seem calm about yesterday's 'no' vote in Greece, but they also don't seem inclined to cut the Greeks any slack.

Ahead of yesterday's Greek referendum, I was in Madrid for the weekend with some friends from Brussels. I arrived back in Berlin last night. The contrast between the opinions I encountered in these two capitals could not be more stark.

During Saturday's Madrid gay pride parade, one of the highlights was a large Greek flag making its way down the parade route. The flag was greeted by huge cheers, just a day before the Greeks were set to go to the polls for a referendum which was being billed by EU leaders as an in-out vote on the country's euro membership.

The flag was, I believe, carried by the contingent of Podemos, Spain's far-left opposition party which is closely aligned with Syriza, the far-left governing party in Greece. But the cheers weren't for Podemos. They were in solidarity with the Greek people. This sentiment was largely reflected in the conversations I had with people there. They were sympathetic, and supportive of a debt write-off.

Quebec: no need for readmission

Given that it is the only significant independence movement in the developed world outside Europe, the cause of Quebec secession is often used as an example in discussions of separatism in the European context. And so it was perhaps not surprising that at an event at the European Parliament last week about independence movements within the EU, a Quebecer was on hand to share his experiences.

The European Free Alliance (EFA), a collection of seven separatist members of the European Parliament from Scotland, Wales, Corsica, Flanders, the Russian community in Latvia and the Basque Country, hosted the event on “the right to decide” last Wednesday (13 November). The group sits in a sometimes uncomfortable common group with the Greens, who notably had little by way of promotion of the event on the group’s website.

In addition to Quebec, the event looked at the independence referendum situations in Scotland, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales and Galicia.

Europe has long had a strange relationship with Quebecois separatism. The situation in Belgium is often compared to that of Canada. France has been a strong supporter of Quebecois separatism, while simultaneously suppressing separatist movement sin Corsica, Brittany and Savoy. But are there really lessons for Europe from Quebec’s experience?

Catalonia: on the precipice of secession?

I’m on a plane back to Brussels from Barcelona at the moment, still digesting the amusingly polarised reaction to Friday’s announcement that the EU has won the Nobel Peace Prize. The significance of the announcement was only heightened for me this weekend by the fact that, as the Nobel committee spoke of the achievement of the EU in keeping Europe together, I was in a country that may be about to tear itself apart.

Friday was Spanish National Day, but you wouldn’t have known it on the streets of Barcelona. The Catalans may have been happy to take the day off work, but they were clearly not in the mood to celebrate. There was no parade, no festivities and - most noticeably - not even any Spanish flags.

In fact the only way one would have known it was national day at all was that in the morning, the streets around Placa de Catalonia were filled with Police officers preparing for a planned march by secessionist demonstrators. Helicopters thundered above us, preparing for the possibility that the city would see a repeat of the massive secessionist demonstrations that took place on 11 September (Catalan National Day) that saw more than a million protestors flood the streets of Barcelona. However from what I saw, this time around the Catalans seemed to prefer ostentatious non-observance to demonstrations.

Though there were Catalan flags draped from nearly every window (perhaps left over from the 11 September celebrations), I did not see one Spanish flag except for those on government buildings.

Carnivals around the world

Today is Ash Wednesday, a day when Roman Catholic areas can witness in equal number people with ashes on their forehead and those with bags under their eyes. It is the first day of lent – the 40-day fasting period leading up to Easter. But it is also the day after Mardi Gras and the carnival week, a period of revelry which can lead to some serious hangovers at the finish.

This year I went to the carnival celebrations in Cologne, Germany – the largest street festival in Europe (pictured above). I think I’m going for a record at this point – I’ve now been to carnivals in six cities on three continents (I’m not sure if that’s a brag or an embarrassing confession). The carnivals that I’ve seen in Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, New Orleans, Venice, Binche, Maastricht and Cologne have all been remarkably different – reflecting the diversity of the global Catholic community.

An American asked me yesterday if Europeans celebrate the “American holiday of Mardi Gras.” In fact it’s Americans who are celebrating the European tradition of carnival, with Mardi Gras just being a local New Orleans variant. Carnivals have been celebrated in Europe in the days before Lent begins for 1,000 years. The term comes from the Latin carne vale, which means “goodbye to meat”. Traditionally during Lent Catholics were supposed to refrain from drinking or eating rich foods such as meat, dairy, fats and sugar. They were also not to engage in any partying or celebrations, to mark the 40 days that Jesus spent in the wilderness. So in the days before Lent, all rich food and drink had to be disposed of.

Europe's left has vanished from the map

It's a process that's been long in the making, but this weekend's election in Spain seemed to be the final nail in the coffin for European Democratic Socialism - at least for the moment. With the fall of the Socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in Spain, following on the heels of the fall of Socialist prime minister George Papandreou in Greece two weeks ago, the EU is now left with only two centre-left governments - Denmark and Austria.

The already dwindling left was already not in a good position, with just five centre-left governments out of the 27 EU states at the beginning of the year. Four of those governments have since fallen, including the collapse of the Slovenian government in September (new elections, which the Left is certain to lose, will be held next month). Only the Austrian government has survived, and they were joined by the Danish social democrats who won a trend-defying election in September. Cyprus, which has a communist (but in truth more nationalist) government, does not sit with the centre-right grouping in Europe.

At the same time, five governments now have provisional or technocratic governments - effectively under the control of the markets and the dominant centre-right governments of Europe. The presidencies of the three institutions of EU governance - the commission, the parliament and the council - are all held by the centre-right. The situation is unprecedented. The irony is, at this time of crisis when Europe seems to be tearing itself apart, the governments of Europe have never been so ideologically united - at least in terms of the left-right divide.

War of words between PIGS and FANGs

The European Commissioner from Spain delivered a surprising attack yesterday on the Northern European countries pushing Southern Europe to adopt painful austerity measures. The comments follow a controversial proposal from the Dutch prime minister earlier this week which called for EU member states struggling with debt to be put under the 'guardianship' of the European Commission, surrendering their ability to make their own financial decisions.

"There are member states, in particular some of the most powerful -- Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Austria -- who feel that they don't have this kind of problem," Almunia told a group of business executives in New York. "[They believe] they don't need to make an additional effort to compensate the lack of resources of the countries who have the most difficulties to reduce imbalances."

The rhetoric was then ratcheted up to an even more dramatic level today when the European Commissioner from Germany told the tabloid Bild that if indebted (read: Southern) EU countries refuse to comply with new rules on debts and deficits, their flags should be flown at half mast outside institutional buildings. Mourning the loss of fiscal prudence, perhaps?

North Atlantic crisis: US, Europe edge toward economic disaster

Normally at this time of year, politicians on both sides of the Atlantic would be preparing for their August break. But there will be no relaxing getaways this year, in what is turning into probably the most anxiety-packed summer of my lifetime.

Both Europe and the US may be just days away from serious financial troubles. And if situations on either continent spin out of control, a worldwide economic panic could be ahead.

On both sides, there are obvious and straightforward solutions that could avert disaster. But in the US, the recent electoral success of a Tea Party movement that wants to see the US default on its debts has rendered the political process incapable of taking action. In Europe, the recent surge toward nationalism and a lack of political courage has rendered the EU incapable of confronting the debt crisis head on. It is a massive failure of the political systems of the Western world.

Eurozone in panic: Is Italy next domino to fall?

The Eurozone is looking at several doomsday scenarios this week after Italy emerged as the latest EU state to face serious and sudden attack by international bond and security markets. After a very public spat between Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his finance minister, and with the continued political uncertainty over Berlusconi's position, the markets have decided Italy may not be safe to lend to any longer.

With the paralysis in the country's government likely to prevent decisive action to confront the crisis, some are saying Italy is perhaps days away from becoming an economic failed state. And unfortunately it is not too big to fail, but it is too big for the EU to bail out.

Such extreme rhetoric may or may not be justified, depending on who you talk to. But the risk is extreme. The countries that have so far fallen victim to the debt crisis and required an EU bailout – Portugal, Ireland and Greece – are relatively tiny and their debt makes up less than 5% of overall eurozone public debt. If worse came to worse, France and Germany could afford to buy back all of their debt combined.

EU issues Greece an ultimatum - could it backfire?

Last night Eurozone finance ministers got tough with Greece, deciding to withhold payment of €12 billion in emergency loans until the Greek Parliament enacts drastic austerity measures. The move is intended to intimidate the opposition forces (which includes the majority of the Greek public) into accepting the cuts, as the Greek prime minister faces a confidence vote in parliament this week.

But given the enormous disaster that would likely befall the Eurozone if Greece leaves the currency union, is this a threat the EU can afford to make? There is a real risk that this latest move could backfire. Massive protests continue in Athens today as people stand in front of the parliament chanting "we won't pay". Inside the building, Socialist prime minister George Papandreou is holding a confidence vote to reaffirm his mandate before he attempts to push these austerity measures through the parliament.

Now facing defection from his own party's members and extreme pressure from public opinion, Papandreou's confidence vote will be a rollercoaster ride over the next few days. There is a chance that this latest move from the finance ministers will further enrage Greek public opinion, where there is already an impression that the EU, at the insistence of Germany, is dictating draconian measures in an anti-democratic way. A perceived insult like this could put public optinion in Greece over the edge and cause even more Socialists to withdraw from the parliament. If Papandreaou's government falls it could mean a default on Greece's debt and, most chillingly, a withdrawal from the Euro. These events could spiral out of control and cause a meltdown of the European economy, and maybe even the world economy. Given that reality, is this really a threat the finance ministers can afford to make?

Europe's left continues to disappear

Yet another centre-left European government was ousted yesterday as the Portuguese voted overwhelmingly for the country's conservatives. Prime Minister Jose Socrates' Socialists, who have been in power since 2005, received just 28% of the vote. The centre-right party, bizarrely named the 'Social Democrats' (a legacy of Portugal's desire to avoid conservative-sounding names reminiscent of the dictatorship) got 37% of the vote, just short of an overall majority. They will form a coalition with the further right People's Party who polled at 11%.

"Centre-right wins in _____" is becoming a familiar headline for European Monday mornings. Conservative governments are re-elected, while centre-left governments are voted out. The left hasn't won an election here since the Socialists took power in Greece in 2009. With the Portuguese Socialists gone, this leaves the EU with only five centre-left governments - Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Slovenia and Spain. Compare this to the 19 governments controlled by the centre-right - plus three controlled by the right-leaning free-market Liberals.

Given the disastrous local election results for Spain's Socialists two weeks ago one can assume they will fall from power in the country's general election next year, if not earlier. This will leave the left with essentially no presence in Europe. It is an unprecedented situation in modern European history - the first time since the advent of widespread Democracy that the European left has had no voice.

Merkel to Southern Europe: work more, play less

Workers in Southern Europe shouldn't enjoy more vacation and earlier retirement ages than their Northern European counterparts, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a meeting of her Christian Democratic Union party last night. The comments, highly surprising coming from this usually cautious and analytical politician, have been greeted by applause from the right-leaning papers in Germany today.

"People in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal should not retire earlier than in Germany. We should all make the same efforts, this is important," German press agency DPA quotes Merkel as saying. "We cannot have a common currency where some get lots of vacation time and others very little. That won't work in the long term."

The notoriously early retirement ages in Southern Europe have been a cause of serious griping in Germany since the country was forced to foot most of the bill to bail out Greece and Portugal over the past year.  In Greece and Italy, a person can retire as early as 57. In Germany a person can't retire earlier than 65, and Merkel's government has voted to raise that to 67 over the next three years. Part of the conditions of Greece receiving its EU-IMF bailout was that it introduce reforms to raise the retirement age to 63.

While the right leads in Helsinki, the left is sidelined in Athens

Center-Right

Center-Left

Liberal (Libertarian)

Europe's two main political groupings – the center-right European People's Party (EPP) and the center-left Party of European Socialists (PES) – are today holding dueling summits in Helsinki and Athens, respectively. The simultaneous timing of the two-day events, a bit like the party conferences in the UK or US – is highly unusual. But they are coinciding because they are both meant to get each side singing from the same hymn sheet at next Friday's incredibly important European Council summit. And given Europe's current political reality, the choice of a Northern capital for the right's meeting and a Southern capital for the left's meeting seems entirely appropriate.

But despite the fact that these are nominally meetings of Europe's two main political groups, the reality is that the Helsinki summit will effectively be a meeting of those running Europe while Athens will be an ignored meeting of those sitting on the sidelines. Because the European left has been pushed to Europe's geographic fringes and marginalized by the debt crisis, the Athens meeting will be a meeting of politicians "in opposition". In Helsinki, German chancellor Angela Merkel will lead a meeting of representatives of the governments of 17 of the 27 EU member states. At the Socialist conference in Athens only five governments will be represented.

In addition to national leaders like Merkel, Berlusconi and Ireland's incoming prime minister Enda Kenny, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy– both from the EPP – are also in Helsinki. The president of the European Parliament, EPP politician Jerzy Buzek, may come tomorrow. They will be discussing the Eurozone Competitiveness Pact drawn up by Merkel and Sarkozy as well as the debt relief fund. They will also discuss a united European response to the events in North Africa. In effect it will be a sort of mini European Council summit.

What will they talk about in Athens? Who knows. Who cares? Whatever is on the agenda, it will have little consequence for the direction of EU policy.

EU considers closer ties with Cuba

In one of her first moves after the EU's foreign relations arm (the EEAS) comes into existence at the begining of December, the new EU foreign affairs chief Cathy Ashton is going to contact the Cuban government to explore closer ties with Havana, according to news reports today. The development is interesting because it shows how the new EU foreign policy, made possible by the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, may seek in some ways to be a counterweight to American foreign policy. But there are deep divisions within the union about whether it should seek a different policy toward Cuba than the United States.

The EU has in fact had a "common position" on Cuba since 1996, but this policy has been seen by some as a NATO-crafted backing of the American position on Cuba. It says that EU member states will only normalise their links to Cuba if the country makes progress on democracy and human rights. Spain has been the leading voice for increasing ties with Cuba, and over the summer they were keen to highlight to Brussels Cuba's decision to release 52 political prisoners. According to reports, these pleas from Spain have found a sympathetic ear with Ashton.

EU smoking ban in the works for next year

They've made tenuous moves in the past, but this time it looks like they're serious. Yesterday EU health chief John Dalli told a German newspaper that the European Commission will make a push to ban smoking in all public places, transport and workspaces throughout the EU next year. It is an ambitious idea considering that the status of smoking in public places currently varies widely across the union, and even the United States has been unable or unwilling to try to put in place a federal smoking ban.

Last year the European Commission took a rather half-hearted stand on public smoking, merely encouraging member states to adopt their own smoking bans by 2012. But since then a new commission has come to power and the new health commissioner appears to be more aggressive on the issue than his predecessor. He wants to propose new legislation next year to reduce the amount of nicotine used in cigarettes, make shopkeepers keep cigarettes out of view from customers and enforce new labelling requirements on cigarette packs. He also told the newspaper that he wants to push for an EU-wide smoking ban.

A Mediterranean revolt against the EU-wide patent

A few years ago I worked as a reporter covering intellectual property investment - essentially venture capital firms investing in new inventions and forming start-up companies around them. It was an interesting gig, but when I moved to London to start the job I knew nothing, and I mean nothing, about intellectual property. So it was a steep learning curve. I remember one of the things I was very surprised by when I started learning about how to protect intellectual property in Europe was the fact that, despite the existence of a European Patent Office in Munich, there is no such thing as a Europe-wide patent.

It struck me as rather strange. Of all the things the European Union could do well, it would seem that organising Europe-wide intellectual property protection would be high on the list. After all, it's a common market for products, shouldn't it be a common market for ideas?

But the reality is that though Brussels has tried time and time again, there still is no European patent - only individual patents for each member state. So if a company wants to patent its technology, product or idea throughout the European common market, it must undertake the arduous task of applying for a patent in each of the 27 member states. Each state has a different system, which involves a lot of work. And of course each state charges a high fee, resulting in a high financial cost for companies and researchers.

Are the Dutch still loyal to the King of Spain?

It's been too hot to blog! Temperatures here in Belgium have been hovering around 32°C (90°F), which I know doesn't seem like a lot for those of you sitting in 102°F in New York, but 90° is very hot for us here! Most offices here don't have air conditioning because it rarely gets this hot. It is just not the right weather for blogging.

But I thought I'd share one quick little factoid. As soon as Spain beat Germany Wednesday night in the World Cup semi-final (boo!) and I realised it was going to be a Spain-Holland final, I thought of the interesting historical implications of such a game. It wasn't until the next day though that I remembered that those historical implications are going to be brought to the fore by the Netherlands' very own national anthem (which is, by the way, the oldest such anthem in the world). When the Dutch team lines up on the field to sing their national anthem, they will sing "To the King of Spain I've granted a lifelong loyalty." Awkward! What if the Juan Carlos orders them to lose the game?

Madrid

I had an amazing time in Madrid this past weekend – my first visit to that city. After several weeks in cold, rainy Brussels it was a welcome respite. It also made me realize just how much I’m starting to miss being in a big city.

Madrid reminded me a lot of New York. With its grid street pattern of cement blocks, tall buildings, extensive and efficient metro and intense late-night nightlife, it was a bit like being back in the big apple. London is like New York in a lot of ways, but in those key areas I’ve listed above it is definitely not. So Madrid is probably the second most “like New York” city I’ve seen in Europe. The nightlife there is not only a lot of fun, but it’s also very relaxed and not as rigidly structured as the nightlife in London, where people go out very early and the rest of the evening has all sorts of rules about when things close. Comparing it to nightlife in Paris, it does have similar late-night hours, but I would definitely never describe Paris nightlife as being “relaxed”.

Obama 'snubs' Europe

Given that this is a blog about EU-US issues, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the sad, sad tears that are being shed today over Barack Obama’s decision to ditch the planned EU-US summit in Madrid in May.

Spain appears to be livid about it, while papers across Europe seem to be responding not in anger but rather in a rather depressed and humiliated shrug. The White House announced yesterday that Obama would not be attending the planned joint summit, which apparently came as quite a shock to its organisers. Apparently EU officials found out about the decision, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, through the news media.

Spain, which currently holds the rotating EU ministerial presidency (not to be confused with the newly-created council presidency), is now saying it will postpone the summit until the president can attend. Holding it without him would be humiliating for Europe and would lack symbolic significance.

Mr Bean – EU President

Today the euroblogosphere was receiving more attention than it’s used to, thanks to a surprising visit from Mr. Bean on the EU presidency’s web site. But now it’s turned into a war of words between bloggers – who insist they saw the image – and Spain – which insists no such image ever appeared.

I myself didn’t become aware of the story until late this afternoon, after an entire day of being frustrated by attempts to open the Spanish EU presidency’s web site and having them time out. Spain took over the rotating EU presidency from Sweden on 1 January*, and I had to write a story about their platform but couldn’t access their documents. As soon as I opened my twitter account I could see why. Everyone in Brussels was tweeting about ‘Beangate’, commenting both on the hack itself and the enormous amount of media attention it was receiving.